A view from Moscow in 1999.

British Ambassador reports on Russia's likely futures.

As the UK declassification speeds ahead, I have made it a habit to review the newly-opened material, especially in so far as it sheds light on Russia’s foreign policy and Russia-UK relations. The documents are extremely rich, and they are all the more important that there is very little access for the time-being to the Russian side of the story. The UK was present on the ground in Moscow, and the reports filed by British ambassadors are an amazing source of insight about the problems that Russia faced, domestic political struggles, economic difficulties, etc.

I’ve been reviewing Sir Andrew Wood’s correspondence with London. Sir Andrew was HM Ambassador in Moscow in 1995-2000, overlapping with John Major and Tony Blair, and with oh many—too many—things in Russia. His reports are notable for their sharpness, a cautiously positive view of Russia, and a real commitment to the improvement of Russia-UK relations.

Looking in retrospect, he occasionally misread the situation. Of course, we all do, and predicting Russia’s future is ever a thankless task.

I wanted to share one of his curious reports filed in September 1999, less than a month after Vladimir Putin’s arrival on the scene as Prime Minister, and just two days before the first apartment bombing in Buynaksk. Russia was already waging another war in Chechnya (we know how that ended). Yeltsin would soon step down. Putin would be elected President. Soon, he would crack down on civil society in Russia. Processes were already in motion that got us where we are.

Sir Andrew was aware of some of these negative tendencies, but his report emphasized the positive view of things. Many things have gone wrong with Russia, he argued, but it could have been worse.

An interesting report, which you should read in full. Note his curious prediction about Ukraine. I highlighted the key passages in bold. My comments are set aside with an orange marker.

What an amazing history! And what a privilege for me as a historian to be among the first members of the public to read these documents.